Monomer and polymer prices fall in May amid significant import pressure
The published May olefin and styrene monomer prices were in line with expectations. The contract price of ethylene monomer was reduced by 70 euros, the contract price of propylene monomer by 65 euros and the contract price of styrene monomer by 40 euros. European polymer prices for May will be published in the week ahead. European polymer producers will likely have to follow the monomer price decline, partly due to weak demand and partly due to overseas – primarily Middle and Far Eastern – imports becoming competitive due to the weak dollar.
The coming months will be characterized by expanding import availability. Due to the threat of a tariff war, many traders turned east. In addition to the usual Saudi, South Korean and Vietnamese polymers, Taiwanese PVC, Chinese Polypropylene and EPS also appeared. All at a very depressed price. Moreover, due to the lack of a tariff war, North American imports seem to be starting up again. This could lead to significant supply growth and price pressure, especially for polyethylene. In May-June, the two effects could result in a significant oversupply of imports on the market. Import pressures may ease by August due to falling European prices. In order to relieve supply pressure, planned and unplanned shutdowns of varying lengths are expected at European polymer manufacturers.
Although demand is expected to improve slightly in May compared to April, the increase in import supply will put downward pressure on prices. The cheapest prices will be for imported grades during May-June. At the same time, some popular European grades will be in short supply, and their prices will decrease to a lesser extent than monomer prices.
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myCEPPI
myCEPPI provides a weekly price report for commodity plastics.
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