Weekly commodity price report

 The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices last week:

• BRENT oil price 50.52 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1038, turning trend, strengthening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 465.41 USD/t, rising prices again,
• March contract monomer prices:
  • Ethylene (C2) contract price -50 EUR/t (920 EUR / t),
  • Propylene (C3) contract price -20 EUR/t (825 EUR / t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price not yet known (1,067 EUR / t)
• All Central European polymer producers are producing.
• Expected outages:
  • Rompetrol: 2020. March 15 - May 5, 2020 (LDPE, PP)
  • Unipetrol: April 6 - May 18, 2020 (HDPE, PP, C2, C3)
• The coronavirus disrupted the European and Central European market last week

The coronavirus has also reached the polymer markets, for the time being, through lower commodity prices. The nearly $ 9 drop in oil prices is due to the spread of the crown virus to the world pandemic last week. Among other things, it reached Europe and started to spread very quickly. Oil prices reached a one-year low. The price of NAPHTHA has also fallen, but has not yet reached its low point in early February. Nonetheless, negative market expectations have dragged down monomer prices.

The price of ethylene (C2) monomer has fallen by EUR 50, reaching a 3-year low. Propylene (C3) has dropped by EUR 20, which represents a two-year low. The question is how polymer producers respond to this. Propylene supply appears to be tight, with the largest European PP producer not thinking about cutting prices at all, and even planning a small increase of € 10-30. In Central Europe, Unipetrol is about to shut down, stockpile, and Rompetrol will be shut down in two weeks. Few import PPs were received in February and we do not expect much in March either. However, the demand side is weak and uncertain. The cause of the uncertainty is not the coronavirus. Much more problematic is the need to adapt to the upcoming EU packaging regulation, with the already declining demand for conventional packaging. The weakness of the automotive industry also affects plastic processing in Central Europe. Cheap PPCs with a high melt flow index are still present in the market. The coronavirus only adds to the uncertainty of demand that would otherwise be present from the beginning of the year.

Except for some of the grades in high demand a PP price increase is unlikely to succeed. In the current situation, PP's maximum producer success can be roll-over in Central Europe. In any case, converters will expect to pass on the monomer price drop. We will probably see an average price drop of € 0-10 for PP.

The situation of PEs is more difficult. Due to uncertainty in the demand for packaging, demand in February was not buoyant and no significant recovery is expected in March either. However, due to the strong dollar there is little cheap import HDPE in the market. For LLDPE, the price increase has been under considerable pressure since early February. Therefore, a fall in prices is unimaginable, and even the biggest player is likely to try to achieve a smaller price increase. The market situation is overshadowed by the border closures due o the coronavirus between Turkey and Iran. This may weaken the HDPE supply, but not significantly. The strong dollar plays a greater role in HDPE, which has significantly reduced the price advantage of non-European American and Russian goods in January and February. Thus, European producers should consider whether it is worthwhile to cut prices in excess of € 10-30 in March. LDPE prices began to rebound in February. Price levels above 900 € / t were typical, but the market remained uncertain in terms of March expectations.

SM's March contract price is not yet known. However, spot (FOB Rotterdam) prices fell by € 20 from the previous week. Thus, it is almost certain that no price increase is expected.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of 890-990 €/t last week. They did not change. Demand outlook for March is uncertain. Therefore, an average price reduction of € 20-30 is expected, especially for higher priced products. The typical price range will be between 880-950 €/t in March.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 900 - 1,040 €/t in Central Europe last week. At a price below 900 €, only non-European and Russian import products are available. Demand is corresponding to February but buyers are uncertain about the outlook. Typical HDPE prices were as follows:

• HDPE BM: 920-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 910-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 900-1,010€/t,

HDPE importers are dissatisfied with their price levels, they should raise due to the strong dollar, the margins of HDPE producers in Central Europe are at a low point, and they have an economic interest in roll-over or possibly lower price cuts of € 0-15. And converters are clinging to price cuts. However, transferring the full ethylene price drop would not lead to a significant increase in demand. Central European producers will therefore cut prices by € 0-20. So the starting prices for March will be as follows:

• HDPE BM: 890-990 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 890-990 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 890-990 €/t,

However, there is now a tendency to panic, and it is possible that producers who are “in panic" due to weak demand in the second week of March will make further price cuts.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,110-1,210 €/t last week. Demand in February was good throughout the region. Due to the pick-up in demand in March, no major price drop is expected, probably there will be a roll-over or a price drop by € 10. Prices for March are expected to be between 1,110-1,190 € / t.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week, they increased further. Demand is good but uncertain. The effect of exchange rate changes may be reflected in prices. Thus, a price increase of 0-10 € is expected in March.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. Demand is low. Due to oversupply, higher prices may also lead to significant price reductions following ethylene price changes. Prices for March are expected to be between 1,020 and 1120 € / t.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 925-1,030 €/t last week. They did not change. Due to expected downtime at Rompetrol and Unipetrol, supply is expected to narrow in March. Roll-over is very likely in this segment. Prices for early March are expected to be between 925-1,030 €. If demand is very weak, prices could even fall in the second half of March. But the need for non-woven spun-bond and non-woven melt-blown grades can greatly increase due to the coronavirus. Thus, early March increases in case of these grades are also conceivable.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 925-1,030 €/t last week.The price of products with high melt flow index ranged from 970 to 1,090 €/t. Demand for both grades is good. However, due to the narrowing supply, we are basically expecting a roll-over, but demand may fall as a result of the escalating economic panic. Prices for early March are expected to be between 925-1,030 € for non-specialty products with medium melt flow index. Even with high melt flow index products, prices are likely to remain in the range of 970-1,090 € / t in the first week of March.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. Demand picked up strongly in the second half of February. The market is again oversupplied. Especially for products with high melt flow index. Thus, further price reductions can be expected for high MFR IM products. Other products are more likely to roll-over, with a smaller (10 €) price drop. Thus, the price band is expected to expand in March. Prices are expected to be in the price range of 1,030-1,180 € / t.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,110-1,220 €/t last week. They did not change. Supply shortages are expected as one major importer predicts that it will be able to import less material into Europe in March. As a result, a decrease in prices is unlikely. We expect a roll-over.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,120-1,180 €/t last week. The demand is expected to pick up in March. SM price increase is unlikely, so no price increase. The "comfortable" customer attitude is likely to remain in March. A roll-over is expected, possibly with a smaller price decrease in case of a decreasing SM price.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,235 €/t, while HIPSprices were in a range of 1,200-1,320 €/t . Weak demand and uncertain market expectations characterized the market. Uncertainty will remain in March. Prices will follow the SM price change.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,400-1,650 €last week. The market is characterized by oversupply. This will remain like that in March, and even throughout the first half of the year. It is likely that this broad price band will be typical in March as well.