Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 63.39 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1,1092, a stagnant Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 533.38 USD/t, slowly further increasing prices
• December contract monomer prices:
  • Ethylene (C2) contract price +10 EUR / t (970 EUR/t),
  • Ethylene (C3) contract price +5 EUR/t (845 EUR/t),
  • Styrene monomer (SM) contract price -47 EUR / t (953 EUR / t)
• Restrained demand,
• Plastic converters are getting informed,
• Spot markets still seem to stand still,

The reason for the weak demand last week is that plastic converters clearly expected a price drop in December. However, the rise in the prices of olefin monomers has stopped the downward trend. Although one of the major Central European producers made significant price decreases on the domestic market. However, this was a correction as October-November prices stuck above market price levels. However, the majority of Central European producers made a roll over. Large Western European producers are also trying to keep polyolefin prices down, with just minor price cuts of € 5-10 in order to boost sales.

Converters seem disappointed because prices did not drop.  However, it is clear that polyolefin prices reached their lowest level. Even the lower figure of the LDPE, HDPE, PPH price bands begin with nine. But there are also offers for less than € 900 for cheap, exotic materials mainly in Poland. However, these are spot items with limited availability. Often, the goods offered are physically still on the road. However, the low price is suitable for influencing the value judgment of market participants.

Although prices have reached, or are at least close to, their low point, only a minority of converters are planning to buy in December, especially LDPE. Most converters prefer to wait, at most sites production is down between December 20 and January 6. And expectations for 2020 are so far pessimistic.

The question is, what will the impact of this short December with low demand be on polymer producers? Can they wait patiently until the second week of January, slightly increasing their stocks. Or are they starting to reduce their inventory with "special" offers? In the case of polyethylene, and in particular HDPE, there is a good chance of individual discounts after December 15.

The Central European PP market is heavily influenced by the "force majeure" of MOL Petrochemical's PP4 plant. As a result, some grades of PPR, PPH and some PPC have a lower supply than usual. This is felt in all Central European countries. As a result, we do not expect a PP price decrease in the second half of the month. Even in January, small but steady price increases are likely.

SM prices decreased by EUR 47 and polystyrene producers initially lowered their prices to an extent greater than this. However, due to weak demand and expected further price reductions, the actual December PS price drop is likely to be around € 50. Due to low prices, there are few imports from outside of Europe on the market.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of 900-1,000 €/t last week in Central-Europe. They did not change compared to November closing prices. There are still offers below € 900, mainly in Serbia and Poland. MOL has made significant price adjustments so its prices are already in the middle of the typical price range.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 910 - 1,020 €/t in Central Europe last week. They did not change compared to November closing prices. For traders, materials from outside Europe are available for as little as below € 900. But the Serbian price level is also around 900 €. Typical price bands for each sub-grades last week were:

• HDPE BM 920-980 €/t,
• HDPE IM prices 910-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM grades 910-990 €/t,

Demand for HDPE is low. It will probably remain low until the end of the year. Due to selling pressure, also weird, special offers are likely to hit the market after December 15th.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,210 €/t last week. Some producers have made smaller, monomer-following price increases, while others have lowered their prices by EUR 20-30. Demand is low. However, larger pipe manufacturers are expected to receive their year-end special offers in the usual way. Thus, larger advance purchases are expected in December and January.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-980 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices did not change compared to the end of November. Demand is steady for the time being, weaker than usual.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. A rollover happened in December.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 920-1,030 €/t last week, roll-over happened. The supply is good, but some Mol specific grades may be missing from the market.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. Prices have not changed since last November. The price of products with high flow index was in a range of € 980 - € 1,080/t. The lower value of the price band dropped below EUR 1,000 in December. This is due to the significant oversupply in Poland. Interestingly, at the bottom of the price band are grades with MFRs greater than 40, while grades with an MFR of 25 hold their price and are mostly in the upper third of the price band.

Typical PPC prices prices ranged from 1,020 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. The price band has expanded significantly since early November. The prices around € 1,020/ton in the SCE region come from outside Europe. The prices of the Central European polymer producers remained unchanged. Except for MOL. MOL made a significant downward price adjustment in Hungary.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,220 €/t last week. They did not change compared to last week. Due to force majeure at MOL Petrochemical some IM grades are in short supply. But there is also just a low quantity of pipe and extrusion materials on the market. The supply is expected to narrow further in the remaining weeks of December.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,070-1,100 €/t last week, for the time being they dropped just by about EUR 30. Producers are still scanning the market. However, the final December prices are expected to be in the range of 1,050-1,090 € / t. Demand is weak and the construction season is over.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,050-1,140 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,230 €/t. Demand for HIPS is weak. Demand for GPPS is slightly better. There is still a low quantity of PS import from outside of Europe on the market. Demand is further weakened by the fact that converters are now only what they need in December. Many expect further price reductions in January.

Typical ABS prices have been in the range of 1,350-1,500 € over the past week. European producers reduced prices by an average of 50 €. The prices of non-European imports, which represent the bottom of the price range, remained unchanged. As a result of the SM price cut, the European ABS price approached that of imports, being competitive again. Demand is weak and is expected to pick up only in January.