Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 62.28 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1,1056, a stagnant Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 517.32 USD/t, slowly increasing prices
• Manufacturers closed orders,
• Spot prices are falling in panic.

Central European feedstock producers have lowered their prices by an average of EUR 40-50 compared to their October prices. They managed to commit most of their November production up to last week. No further price reductions are expected in November.

Distributors are still under pressure. Many of them have only recently obtained a competitively priced polymer. So the huge supply pressure on their part is not a surprise. In reality, however, significant quantities are not very active behind them. Because demand is low in the spot markets, price is the only tool they use to drive buying. As a result, a negative price spiral in the spot markets has unfolded over the past week. In many cases, converters place unrealistic price expectations on distributors. And traders exposed to high-pressure sometimes sell at zero or negative margins.

Some traders selling non-European imported materials refuse to enter this price competition. Especially since prices for polyethylene are already higher in Africa. Thus, they do not have to compete in the high-priced Central European market.

The plastic converters placed their orders with the producers. As MOL Petrochemical resumed production at PP4, force majeure has not yet ended. Thus, it is especially important for large users to ensure feedstock supply. Many endeavor to maximize the year-end bonuses. However, there is no pre-purchase or inventory build-up. Spot market demand is low, selling is possible at very depressed prices.

Converters are confident of further price reductions. However, the feedstock side may not support this scenario. NAPHTHA prices in early November surpassed 500 USD/t, a level similar to July. However, in July polymer prices were by 150-180 € higher than at present. It is very likely that PE prices around 900 €/t are no longer attractive to sellers outside Europe.  Thus, we should expect less overseas PE in December. It is also important to note that the expected North American LDPE capacity by 2020 will only start in the first quarter. Which will mean a commercial volume only in mid-summer. A further drop in producer prices is likely in December. December producer prices are likely to be close to November spot prices. However, there is little room for further significant price reductions in spot prices. It is hard to imagine the price of 850 EUR LDPE with ethylene monomer priced at 930-950 EUR.

SM prices fell by € 65 in November, with further reductions expected in December for both monomers and polystyrene grades.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of  900-980 €/t last week in Central Europe.  The cheapest prices on the spot markets were in the range of 900-930 €.  Central European producers also had the lowest prices in this category. Above this, only Western European producers who had the opportunity to export could keep prices up. Offers below € 900 have appeared on the market, but in many cases they are not “traditionally” marketed. Or they cover exotic small item imports.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 910 - 1,020 €/t in Central Europe last week. Demand is weak, especially for FILM grades. The situation is fundamentally determined by the caution of the customers. They do not store large stocks of packaging and even try to use existing ones. Last week's prices were set by the "spot market", pushing prices below EUR 1,000. Last week's trading price ranges were as follows

• HDPE BM 920-980 €/t,
• HDPE IM prices 930-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM grades 910-990 €/t,

In some cases, North American HDPE products were available for sale for less than € 900 through traders.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,160-1,200 €/t last week.  Demand is low.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-1,000 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The price range has narrowed, and the highs have fallen. The supply is good, but the demand is weak.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. The supply is wide and the demand, like other packaging materials, is weak.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 920-1,030 €/t last week.  The supply on the spot markets is not that great as it is for polyethylene. Some converters tried to push prices below € 900 on the spot markets without success. The unexpected shutdown of MOL Petrochemical's PP4 plant in October is still affecting the Central European PPH market. Therefore, the PPH market is only slightly oversupplied.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. Prices dropped by only about 10-15 Euro compared to the previous week. The price of products with high flow index was in a range of € 1,020 - € 1,080/t. In Poland, the price range is 1,010 - 1,050 €/t. Demand is low, end-of-the-year demand.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,080 to 1,160 €/t in Central Europe. On average they went down by 35-50 Euros. Supply pressure is high. Demand is low.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,120-1,220 €/t last week, on the average they dropped by 50 Euros, demand is low. Demand for PPR pipe materials also declined after the construction season. The supply is expanding, and overseas materials are also available at very low prices in Poland.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,080-1,130 €/t last week. The season in Central Europe is over. However, in Hungary the season of insulation material is still dragging on. But EPS plate manufacturers are already curbing their purchases. It's very close to the end of the year.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,180 €/t, while  HIPSprices were in a range of 1,120-1,230 €/t . Low prices mean less imports from outside Europe. Iranian material, for example, is scarce on the market. The likely fall in prices in December will further impair import opportunities on the European market.

Typical ABS prices have been in the range of 1,350-1,500 € over the past week. The market is now driven by the fear of a downturn. On the other hand, there are large volumes on the spot markets, which is constantly pushing prices down. Nobody wants to buy in advance and stock up, and in December there is likely to be a further drop in prices.