Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 66.62 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1333, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 524,83 USD/t, decreasing prices
• the end of the year is at hand, demand is getting weaker
• the maintenance season in Central Europe will end soon.

Ongoing and expected maintenance activities in Central-Europe:

The demand starting dynamically in November started dropping last week, obviously the end of the year is at hand. Accordingly also spot polyolefin prices started dropping. The prices of distributors, traders are lower than direct manufacturer prices. This diverts demand towards the spot markets. Also the demand for off-grade, off-spec (near to prime) materials is high.  In particular in case of PP, converters tried to compensate the prices that increased significantly last year, by purchasing, blending cheaper materials.

Polyolefin supply is good, maintenance activities did not significantly reduce supply.  It is true though that there are many kinds of non-European, imported materials on the market.

The steep SM price reduction did not completely change polystyrene prices. Prices dropped by 80-150 €.  PS producers are sure that there will be a correction soon, they hope that the price of SM will increase as early as in December, but the SM and PS price increase in January seems to be sure. Like this happened also December 2016 and 2017.  The supply of PS produced in Europe seems to be lower than in the previous months. The reason is partially the reduced supply due to the supply problems of BASF, on the other hand a part of the producers wants to avoid selling “at too low prices” to converters.

In detail

Polyolefin grades

The LDPE price is almost unchanged, the prices were in a range of 1,040-1,160 €/t last week.  Demand is dropping, in the southern region in particular.  This can be traced back to the ban of thin-walled bags as of January. Converters slowly get rid of their inventories. The price level is similar in Poland as well, here the lowest prices were at about 1,060 € from various sources. 

The HDPE demand is for the time being similar to that in October, there is no major fallback.  The HDPE demand is low in the southern region. Supply is sufficient, but the shutdowns of the recent period are still palpable, both with regard to MOL and Unipetrol products. In Central Europe the typical prices were in a range of 1,190-1,270 €/t last week. In case of spot products produced outside of Europe the prices are below 1,150 €/t.  The strengthening of the Euro might trigger a further price reduction of these products. On the spot markets a minor price reduction is possible, but basically we anticipate unchanged price level until the end of the month.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,320-1,450 €/t last week.  Pipe producers already prepare the contracts for the next year. Supply is good, demand is low.

LLDPE C4 prices also started dropping last week.   The typical price range was 1,060 -  1,140 €/t.  Demand is good, converters worked on a high level of capacity utilization until the end of the month. Due to the strengthening of the Euro prices will probably erode further.

mLLDPE prices were  in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t last week.  The demand is good, in November we anticipate no price change.

PPH prices did not change last week.  CE PPH raffia prices were in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t, the bottom of the price range has slightly dropped.   The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index came to be a little broader, the price range is 1,200-1,280 €/t. The broadening of the price range, the moving of the lower value from 1,260 to 1,240 can be observed also in case of products with high melt index. In this way prices were in a range of 1,240-1,320 €/t last week.  The demand is still good, yet weakening is probable.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  The lowest price was reported from Poland. The demand is good yet signs of weakening are already in sight. Converters, in parallel with the cheaper purchasing sources getting shorter hunt “near to prime” grades.

The PPR price range was 1,320-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  Demand is good and is expected to remain like this until the end of November.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices dropped by 80-150 €, depending on the baseline in October.  The demand is still very good because of the good weather. But record low prices prompt just a few converters to buying high quantities and accumulate high inventories. First of all because of the off season lasting until January-February, maybe until March. On the other side also supply curbs buying high quantities. As EPS shortage in WE (reduced production at BASF) affects Central Europe as well. Last week in Central Europe the prices were in a range of 1,360-1,500 €/t last week.  The prices in the southern region, in Hungary came rather close to the bottom of the price band, while in Poland, in the Czech Republic the prices were rather in the middle of the band, in a range of  1,400-1,460 €.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was still good last week, due to the low prices.  Converters tried buying in advance, but there are problems with the availability, in the lower price category in particular.  Though PS producers did not implement the full SM price reduction, but in spite of this buying now is an appealing option.  But as we mentioned last week, PS producers have already started to limit the acceptance of orders. Partially because of the higher prices expected in December, partially due to the inventories running out.  The typical GPPS price range was 1,290-1,350 €.  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,310-1,380 €.