Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 72.83 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1388, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 569.89 USD/t, steeply decreasing prices in the first days of November,
• Dropping contracted monomer prices in November
• Ethylene (C2): -10 €/t (1,135 €/t)
• Propylene (C3): -10 €/t (1,060 €/t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) -170, 1,140 €/t
• converters keep waiting.
• the end of the year is at hand,
• the maintenance season in Central Europe will end soon.
• broad supply,

Ongoing and expected maintenance activities in Central-Europe:

Dropping monomer prices determine polymer price changes in November. The broad, extremely competitive supply and the dropping demand are also coupled with this. Prospects are determined by the continuous drop of NAPHTHA prices. (The price drop experienced in the first days of November will probably be corrected this week.)

Polymer producers have not published their prices yet, partially because of the holiday on the first of November, partially because of the uncertainty. Because of the low margins some WE producers have already floated the idea of price increase. Nobody feels it urgent to announce prices. The big players shall lay their cards on the table first. Probably this kind of orientation will continue in the first half of the next week as well. We will get a clear picture about the November prices as late as on Friday. In case of polyethylene grades, in case of LDPE in particular, it would be inevitable to increase margins, to increase prices at least to a level higher than monomer prices. However because of the broad supply this is almost impossible.  Demand is also uncertain. In Romania, due to the new environmental regulations polyethylene consumption will drop significantly 2019. Bag and shopping bag producers try minimizing risks and cut their purchases significantly. During the last two months of the year demand will traditionally drop. In this time period prices usually drop. This is probable to happen this year also to polyolefin grades.

The price drop of the SM by 170 EUR is another slap on the face for PS users. The lowest SM price of the last two years is coupled with low demand. Converters shift more and more away from PS as feedstock, first of all because of the unpredictable, highly volatile price movements. The question is whether producers will pass on such a price drop to the converters.  In our opinion they won’t,   as in December probably a significant correction of SM prices is to be expected. This will further erode the demand which is not too high anyway.

In detail

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices did not change. The typical price range was 1,060-1,140 €/t last week in Central Europe.  Due to the short week demand was low. Next week we still anticipate unchanged prices. The price increase is hardly doubtful.

HDPE demand decreased last week, supply is usually good.  In Central Europe the typical prices were in a range of 1,170-1,260 €/t last week.  According to the forecast of polymer producers the demand will drop in November, compared to October. In this way in November basically roll-over or slight price reduction by 10-15 Euro is to be expected.  

HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,350-1,450 €/t last week.  Demand drops significantly during November and December. This will probably result in a price reduction by 10-40 Euro.

The typical prices of LLDPE C4 did not change either, they were in a range of 1,080 and 1,150 €/t last week. Demand is good and in line with the season.  Because of the Euro getting stronger and the declining demand a price reduction by 0-15 Euro is probable in November.

mLLDPE prices were in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t last week.  In November a price reduction by 0-15 Euro is probable.

PPH prices did not change last week.  CE PPH raffia prices were in a range of 1,180-1,240 €/t.  The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index came to be a little broader, the price range is 1,200-1,260 €/t. The price of goods with high melt index still starts from 1,250 €. In November an unchanged price reduction by 0-15 Euro is probable.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,280-1,400 €/t in Central-Europe last week.   The demand for pipe grades has dropped significantly. With the end of the year at hand the demand for products related to construction, agriculture is dropping. Because of the decreasing demand and dropping monomer prices a price reduction by 0-20 Euro is to be expected.

The PPR price range was 1,320-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  The demand is good in general, but certain specific grades were short of supply. In general lower demand and lower prices are to be expected in November. A price drop by about 0-20 € can be expected in November.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

In spite of the good weather the end of the EPS season is at hand.  Last week, with a low volume of sales, the typical price range was 1,500-1,650 €/t.  Feedstock producers will probably not pass on completely the price reduction by 170 Euro to converters. But a price reduction by three digits is highly probable. In November we anticipate prices in a range of 1,400 – 1,510 € in Central Europe.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was weak last week.  Buyers anticipated the price reduction and did not buy also because of the short week. Because of the steeply dropping SM price it is hard to forecast. The price reduction by three digits is certain in case of polystyrene grades produced in Europe, but it is not probably that the complete SM price reduction will be accepted. Cheapest GPPS and HIPS prices will probably get close to 1,300 Euro.