Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 57.71 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1,0981 EURO remains weak
• NAPHTHA (European): 462.41 USD/t, decreasing prices
• October contract monomer prices:
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +20 EUR / t (990 EUR / t),
• Ethylene (C3) contract price +10 EUR / t (870 EUR / t),
• Styrene monomer(SM) contract price -21 EUR/t (1,065 EUR/t),
• Polyolefin producers are trying to pass on price increases,
• Still force majeure at MOL Petrochemicals PP4,

Price increases for ethylene monomers were expected while propylene prices were by EUR 10 below the price of ethylene monomers. In the middle of last week, polymer producers have increased prices by EUR 0-30 for polyethylene and by EUR 10-25 for polypropylene. For now, customers are waiting. Some Western European producers have opened  with rollover in case of  LDPE. This will make it difficult for others to pass on the price increase. Customers are not open to price increases. So far, high-stock plastic converters have decided to reduce inventory levels to normal levels. The general expectation is towards a lasting decline in prices for both polyethylene and polypropylene. But it is no exaggeration to say that this constant expectation of falling prices applies to all mass plastics. Expectations of a slowdown in industrial production have also infiltrated the plastics industry, pushing back demand. The challenge for polymer producers is to raise prices in a pessimistic, oversupplied market. Polypropylene alone has some potential for price increases. There is no major oversupply here. On the one hand due to the MOL malfunction and on the other hand due to the weak trickling Russian imports. But the weak euro also helps a lot in the market situation, which worsens the competitiveness of non-European materials. However, converters have not yet shown a strong purchase intention last week. The final October prices for polyolefin will only be available in the week ahead.

The decline of SM prices and the increase of supply were expected.  The price of the SM has fallen as expected by EUR 21. This decrease in prices also passed on to polystyrene.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  930-1,040 €/t last week.  The price band has widened due to price increases. As not all producers raised prices, the bottom of the price band was fixed, while the highest value rose. There was just a low number of transactions at increased prices last week. Most of the October orders will be placed in the week ahead. Probably at unchanged prices The picture is shaded by the availability of LDPE in Poland from Russian sources at a delivery price of less than 900 EUR/ton. For the time being the quantity is not high (just a few hundreds tons), but it is growing month by month.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 -  1,110 €/t in Central Europe last week. The supply is generally good. Some of the bimodal HDPE Film and BM grades are short of supply on temporary basis. Almost all of the polymer producers have opted for price increases, raising their prices by € 15-30. But there was also a Central European producer that had not yet published prices on export markets. It is very likely that the monomer following price increase will be accepted by the market and the price level will rise by about 15-20 Euro in October. This is despite the fact that in this product segment there is also  cheap Russian material for less than € 900 in Poland.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,080 €/t last week. The price cap has risen by around EUR 30. Demand is low at the present. The final price level in October is expected to be 20 € higher than in September.

Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 970 -  1,070 €/t in Central Europe. They rose slightly. So far, there have been few transactions, and most orders will be placed in the week ahead.

HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 940-1,110 €/t in Central-Europe last week. The bottom of the price band is also expected to move upward after the HDPE producer in the southern region makes its price increase decision. Which is likely to track the monomer price change.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,310 €/t last week.  Prices have hardly changed. The season is coming to an end, demand is weakening. Price levels are expected to remain in October as they are now.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 990-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The price range came to be more narrow. The strong dollar and the Saudi Aramco explosion are having an impact. The supply is lower and the cheap goods are out of stock.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,220 €/t last week. The change only occurred at the upper end of the price range. Supply is good. Few transactions have occurred. Some European manufacturers have not yet come out with October prices. Demand is not expected to be strong in October either. The most likely October final price scenario is compared roll over compared to September.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  970-1,110 €/t. So far, there are few transactions. Since almost all manufacturers have raised prices, the bottom of the price band is probably still September prices/materials. October prices will be finalized in the week ahead. The good news is that PolyOM has also raised its prices by around € 30. Thus, the October prices will be between 990-1,100 € / t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,000-1,110 €/t. The prices of products with high flow index rose slightly, they were in the price range of 1,080-1,200 EUR/t. There was a 15-30 EUR price increase. Price increases are likely to continue during October, as supply is narrower than usual.

Typical prices increased slightly, PPC prices ranged from 1,140 to 1,220 €/t in Central Europe. Products manufactured in Europe rose by EUR 15-30. Due to the strong dollar, imports are less than usual, but cheap items are still available in Poland. Converters target the bottom of the price range, but these items are expected to run out slowly.

Prices were in a range of  1,170-1,280 €/t.  Polymer producers have increased their prices by EUR 15-25. Final October prices will be set in the week ahead.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,200 €/t last week. They clearly fell. Demand picked up compared to September, but the decline in SM prices has also pushed EPS prices down. With the construction season nearing its end, EPS manufacturers are looking to sell everything later this month. It is no coincidence that some Central European producers cut prices in two steps last week.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,160-1,220 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,195-1,310 €/t. Expected price drop occurred. But this does not stimulate demand either. Further price reductions are expected.

ABS prices were in the price range of € 1,430-1,590 last week, with European manufacturers announcing price cuts of € 10-15. Demand is low. Further price reductions are expected in October.