Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 84.16 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.152, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 724.95 USD/t, steeply increasing prices
• average September demand,
• short HDPE and PPH supply,
• The contracted monomer prices in October are
• Ethylene, C2 +10 €/t (1,145 €/t)
• Propylene C3: +20 €/t; (1,070 €/t)
• Styrene monomer SM -70€/t (1,310 €/t)
• the maintenance season in CE has started, the following plants are maintained:
• The HDPE plant and the smaller PP plant (220 kt/year HDPE capacity, 100 kt/year PP capacity – as of September 24, 2018 in Tiszaújváros) of MOL Petchem.
• BOP (320 kt/year HDPE capacity, 100 kt/year LDPE capacity,)
• Unipetrol (200 kt/year HDPE capacity, 280 kt/year PP capacity) did not restart last week.
• In Russia the HDPE plant of Kazanorgsintez (540 kt/year HDPE capacity) is down for maintenance and the PP plant of Totál in France, Lavera is down, (300 kt/year PP capacity).  The 150 kt PP plant of LyondellBasell in Wesseling is also at standstill.

• October will bring more outages: BOP – Plock (400 kt/year PP capacity) October 4-21, 2018, Slovnaft – Bratislava (255 kt/year PP capacity) as of October 15, 2018, LyondellBasell Ferrara as of November 5, 2018), Rompetrol (80 kt/year PP and 60 kt/year LDPE capacity),

In case of polyolefin grades, in spite of the minor monomer price increases polymer producers basically came up with roll-over. An exception is maybe HDPE only, where there was just a minor price increase by about 10 €.  This is moderate, corresponds to the season.

Yet something happened during the last two days of the last week, there was a spike in the LDPE demand during the last 2 days of the last week, almost simultaneously with the increase of NAPHTHA prices. It was high time for this, cheapest prices were at the producers in the southern region, in a range of 1,030-1,040 €/t (FCA) and this was with delivery not higher than 1,050-1,060 €. This low price continuously generated tension on the market. Converters are also uncertain and do not really dare to buy. Because of the prices that start climbing the price range is expected to get narrow, that is the market price range of 1,090-1,140 will come back.  Also the HDPE supply that seemed to be abundant so far, might also disappear overnight. In particular in consideration of the fact that Rompetrol will be down for maintenance at the end of the month. In this way it might happen easily that the LDPE prices falling in 2018 will start increasing during the last quarter because of the suddenly increasing demand and the supply getting shorter.

The SM price decrease did not bring excitement, by Friday all PS producers came up with their offers. The starting price decrease was about 50 €, but all polymer producers had to go along with the monomer price decrease.  In particular to bring prices closer to those of import goods.

Polyolefin grades

The typical LDPE price range was 1,060-1,140 €/t in CE last week.  There was roll-over, minor price reduction during the first half of the week. The slight increase of the demand was typical in the central and northern region, while demand increased significantly in the south.  Due to the increase of the demand the price range will probably get narrow with the bottom line getting closer to 1,100 Euro.  In this way in October the prices will be in a range of 1,100 - 1,140 €.

HDPE demand is still good, while supply is short, both in case of unimodal, and both in case of bimodal grades. On the average there was a price increase by 10 €.  The typical CE price range is 1,200-1,260 €/t.  We will still perceive the demand to be dynamic because of the short supply.

In case of HDPE (100) there was roll-over as it was to foresee.  The demand is not yet high and is not getting better either.  The typical price range was 1,400-1,520 €/t last week.

The typical prices of LLDPE C4 did not change either, they were in a range of 1,080 and 1150 €/t last week. The demand is good, in line with the season. 

 mLLDPE prices were in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t last week.  There was roll-over. There is an average demand, in line with the season.

PPH prices remained stable, practically there was roll-over compared to September.  There is no shortage. In the southern region the cheapest prices are FCA prices, in a range of 1,170-1,190 €, which means delivered prices higher than 1,200 €.  The demand is in line with October, the demand for Raffia grades is dropping, while the demand for injection grades is growing.   By the end of October a situation similar to HDPE might develop, as due to the shutdowns we have to get prepared for short supply that might increase spot prices. PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,190-1,240 €. The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index is: in a range of 1,210-1,260, while that of products with high melt index starts from 1,250 €.

The PPC market is still out of balance, while CE producers carried out roll-over and tried to keep a price level higher than 1,300 € with their regular buyers. In the meantime, on the free market (via traders) the same goods are to have at prices starting from 1,250 €.  This phenomena affects first of all IM and extrusion grades with intermediate melt flow index. Prices were in a range of 1,280-1,440 €/t in Central-Europe last week. 

In case of PPR there was roll-over, in case of certain grades with a price increase by 10-20 €, but the typical price range is practically unchanged.   The price range was 1,320-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week. 

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand was good, in line with the season last week.  Polymer producers reduced prices by 50-70 €.  The typical price range is 1,500-1,650 €/t in October.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS is still weak.  European producers followed the monomer price decrease. Last week price decreased by 50-70 Euro. Because of the reappearing import from outside of Europe there was a major price reduction constraint.  The price range of imported GPPS is 1,380-1,420 € and in case of HIPS prices are in a range of 1,400-1,450 €/t.  The average price of GPPS produced in Europe is in a range of 1,450- 1,560 €, while the range of HIPS prices was 1,550-1,650 €   depending on the grade and application area.