Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 64.40 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1,1057 EURO remains weak
• NAPHTHA (European): 483.13 USD/t, stagnating prices,
• High inventories at converters

The explosion in the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia has also failed to revive the polymer markets. Polymer prices did not rise. In the first half of the week, a number of North American manufacturers and traders ordered an order-stop, awaiting further developments. Some have been trying to raise prices quickly, by 100-200 USD/t. This has not yet yielded any results. Some European producers announced a significant increase in polypropylene prices of around € 50 in the first half of the week, but customers have not yet accepted this. The picture is overshadowed by the fact that a polymer producer in the southern region announced price reductions of EUR 30-40 for both HDPE and LDPE grades at the beginning of last week.  This approximated its prices to the bottom of the then prevailing price range.

In the remainder of last week, despite the events in Saudi Arabia, there was no supply panic in the market. Only converters whose continuous production is jeopardized by a potential shortage of feedstock showed a higher willingness to buy.  But there was no price increase here either. However, last week inventories representing the bottom of the price ranges started to run off, which leads to an increase of its lower value. And this can be interpreted as a slight increase in prices. However, there was no real price increase by polymer producers. Traders are trying to hold back their cheaper stocks relying on price increases.

In the background of subdued demand, plastic converters have high feedstock inventories. In August, most converters thought prices were at their lowest point in 2019. Time to buy, this was also confirmed by their suppliers. However, the fact that the monomer and polymer prices fell in September confused expectations. Demand is weaker than usual in September, due to high stocks, uncertain price expectations and recession fears. The weak demand mainly affects distributors and traders. As of September 13, polymer producers have closed their order books.

The big issue is the price of non-European imports, especially polyethylene. Oil production and exports are expected to recover within 4 weeks. Ethylene production will also be restored. There is no shortage of any polyethylene yet. The question is as always the change of monomer prices. It is too early to say, for the time being one of the main indicators is that the price of NAPHTHA is by 7.5% higher than a month ago. However, there are still 10 days left of the month. Maintenance of European SM production capacities will also end in October. This means an increase in the demand for ethylene (C2). What kind of monomer prices are expected in October? The situation is well illustrated by a quote from a Central European feedstock producer: "... I want a price increase, but I would be happy with the rollover too, but a price drop is not excluded either..."

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  930-1,020 €/t last week.  There is again supply in the price range above € 1,000. In Poland and the Southern Region (SCE), the lower end of the price range is 930 €/t. In Poland, prices have been in the range of 950-1,020 €/t last week. Demand is weaker than usual in September. The supply is moderate, but it is in balance with demand.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 -  1,090 €/t in Central Europe last week. The southern region (SCE) is also the cheapest in this segment. In Poland, the bottom of the price range has been moving upwards by about € 5-10. Not significant, but it describes the psychology of the past week well that  works best in a liquid, high volume market. After the "panic", prices are likely to rebound.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,060 €/t last week. Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 960 -  1,050 €/t in Central Europe. HDPE Film grade prices were  in a range of 930-1,090 €/t in Central-Europe last week. The lower end of the price range for film grades in the SCE region fell by EUR 30-40. This also affected the entire Central European price range. While in Poland the cheapest prices have risen by the already mentioned 10 euros.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,300 €/t last week.  Prices have not changed. However, demand has picked up. Larger tube producers seem to have increased their purchasing power. The background was that they were trying to secure their supplies. However, no major purchases or price increases were made. The question is what supply in the southern region of the usual cheap Saudi import will be in the coming weeks. The decrease of this supply may increase the lower end of the price range slightly by 10-15 euros.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices practically did not change.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,200 €/t last week. There was no change. Supply is good. Demand is weaker than usual in September.

PPH prices were  in a range of 965-1,130 €/t in Central-Europe last week. Demand was sluggish. Distributors and traders in particular reported sales difficulties. Although several Western European producers have tried to raise prices, this has failed due to customer resistance. Supply is broad. Converters can buy easily.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  965-1,050 €/t. Most transactions took place in the price range of 980-1,010 € / t. In this way the demand is lower than usual for September.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 980-1,110 €/t. High flow index prices rose slightly in the price range of 1,060-1,180 EUR/t. In this segment, the price increase was felt.

Typical prices increased, PPC prices ranged from 1,130 to 1,200 €/t in Central Europe. Cheap lots disappeared from the market. Most transactions were made in a price range of  1,150-1,200 €/t. The demand is lower than moderate.

PPR demand is still good. Prices were in a range of  1,170-1,280 €/t last week.  They did not change. The inventories of plastic converters are high. Demand is subdued.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t last week. Demand is weaker than usual in September.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,140-1,200 €/t, while  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,185-1,310 €/t. Demand for HIPS is very weak, while GPPS is up for the season.

ABS prices were in a price range of 1,430-1,590 € last week.  They did not change. Demand is being weakened by the relocation of Electrolux's vacuum cleaner production to China. This means a decrease in demand of 5-6,000 tons, mainly in Hungary. This is 4-5% of the total Central European market, which is not negligible. This quantity of goods is still looking for its place. This is expected to cause a lot of confusion until it finds it.