Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 72.07 USD/barrel, dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1527, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 630,83 USD/t, decreasing prices
• Olefin monomer roll-over:
• Ethylene (C2): roll-over, 1,135 €/t,
• Propylene: (C3): +8 €/t; 1,040 €/t 
• SM price increase: +20 €/t; 1,315 €/t
• weak regional currencies,
• high converter inventory levels,
• summerlike demand

Those who wanted to buy have already placed their orders last week.  The demand is not too high, it is as usual early August.  Because of the high converter inventory levels companies have purchased only the quantities needed for the monthly production. For the time being there are no pre-purchases. Rather the “sit and wait” strategy is typical, both in case of PP and polystyrene grades.

The week ahead of us will be silent, with low demand. A major increase of the demand is to be expected next week, after the 20th of August. Assumedly then converter will be faced with the shutdowns, production limitations expected by September-October.   From August 20 to the end of October both MOL and LyondellBasell, and the PKN group plan shutdowns that will significantly affect PP and HDPE production in particular in Central Europe. 

The relative HDPE shortage will probably become a total shortage, as in September all three big Central-European producers will shut down their production. In this way even a potential monomer price reduction will not set limits to the HDPE price increase.

PS prices also followed the monomer price increase.  But in spite of the expected further price increase also here the demand is summer-like. For the time being also converters wait for further events, a change in the market dynamics is expected after the 20th.  Then also prices can start climbing in parallel with the pre-purchases. In the meantime the market is on holiday.

Polyolefin grades

On the LDPE market there were low prices and low demand last week.  The prices of polymer producers were, after the deduction of bonuses and rebates, in a range of 1,060-1,160 Euro. Last week the prices offered were in a range of 1,060-1,120 € in the region.  Most LDPE producers, following monomer prices, offered roll-over to their buyers. Buyers keep waiting, demand is weak. Most deals were made within a range of 1,090-1,130 € last week.

HDPE supply is very short, in case of BM and MDPE grades in particular.  In spite of this the price range remains almost unchanged, though the average price moved by 20 € within the price band. The typical price range is 1,150-1,240 €. For the time being the IM grades are cheaper, yet in September their prices are expected to catch up to the other HDPE prices.

The demand for HDPE (100) pipe is summer-like, the typical price range is 1,400-1,520 €/t, has slightly dropped, most deals are made in the price range of 1,400-1,500 €/t.  There was an official price increase, yet in the bottom of the price range most deals are made at a price of about 1,400 Euro.

LLDPE C4 prices did not change, they remained in a range of 1,080 – 1,190 € last week.  In Poland the typical trading price range is 1,100-1,130 €. Demand is low, summer-like, supply is not broad either. The Euro being stable at the present keeps prices stable as well. In the first half of August roll-over can be expected.

The price range of mLLDPE was, because of the offers of producers, 1,260-1,400 € last week.  The price of grades produced in Europe is 1,290-1,400 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area. There is a low quantity of imported materials on the market, but cheap “pre-marketing” goods from West-Europe appeared on the market in a price range of 1,200-1,240 €.

PPH prices stabilized on a level higher than 1,200 €, the typical price range was 1,220-1,380 €. Demand is low, as usual in August. Converters look for cheaper alternatives, the demand for off-grade, off-spec and near to prime materials is increasing.

PPC consumers are unsatisfied, they did not get offers at prices below 1,300 € last week, the price increase by 20 € was accepted on the market.  In Central-Europe last week the price range was 1,300-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade and application area.   Most converters play the survivor’s game, they buy only the quantities needed. Because of the expected shutdowns supply getting shorter and stable, slightly increasing prices can be anticipated.  The chances for price reduction are low.

The typical PPR price range is 1,300-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Typically there was a price increase by 20 €.  The demand is not too high.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

In case of EPS there was an average increase by 20 € last week.  The demand is not too high, it is still highest in the Czech Republic and in Poland, yet the holiday season impacts the market. The typical offer price range in Central Europe is 1,520-1,590 €/t.  Increasing demand and potentially a price increase can be anticipated after August 20.

The price of GPPS and HIPS increased by 20 € each, following the monomer price increase.   Yet the demand was still low last week.   The average price of GPPS produced in Europe is in a range of 1,380- 1,500 €.  But in the southern region GPPS produced in Russia is available again, its price is close to 1,300 €. In this way the price scissor between materials imported from outside of the EU and goods produced in the EU opens again. HIPS prices are in a range of 1,460-1,600 EUR. In the second half of August we expect the demand to grow.