Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 65.19 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1085, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: USD 464.68/t, plummeting prices,
• Relatively good July sales,
• The monomer price drop is over
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +10€/t (1,010 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price Roll-over (910 EUR / t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +33 EUR/ t (1,027 EUR/t),

Market expectations proved, polyolefin roll-over, PS price increase

July as a whole was not bad for polyolefin producers. Before the big holidays in August, polymer producers were trying to quickly sell their monthly production and close July with a "healthy" stock. Most of them succeeded. The right level of stocks is particularly important now because the European economic outlook is not very promising. In this way, everyone strives to act with caution and prudence. And not accumulate significant stocks. An exception to this is now the MOL Group, where, due to a major outage at the end of August, significant inventories - close to 1.5 months of production - have been accumulated to provide continuous supply to customers. This is not much, but during the first two weeks of August weak demand is expected, so accumulated inventories can continue to grow. This is probably one of the reasons why while the majority of market players will essentially come up with roll-over  in August, MOL Group will begin selling in August by a minor price decrease by 10-30 €. The level of price undercutting varies by market and product group. However, this still does not mean downward movement in price bands. Compared to July prices, this is still a roll-over. Another issue is the message to the customers and the market. With unchanged or slightly rising monomer prices, it is unlucky to reduce the price. Because this step will confuse customers and may extend the usual "groping" period at the beginning of the month. Thus, weak demand will feel even weaker this week. And the formation of final prices may also be postponed to the second half of the week. We expect roll-over for the market as a whole, but individual producers can reposition themselves within the price ranges. Until August 18, demand is expected to be weak, while demand is expected to pick up in the second half of August.

The price of SM has increased as expected (+33 EUR / t). This is expected to be reflected in the prices of polystyrene made in Europe.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  980-1,050 €/t last week.  They did not change compared to last week. Converters wait for August prices. The August price range will be similar to the July price range, it will be  980-1,040 €/t. Supply will be wide in the first half of August and demand will be rather weak. Equilibrium is not expected until after 18.

HDPE prices have also stabilized. Typical prices remained in a range of  1,030-1,120 €/t.  Polymer producers had a successful July. In August, the price range is expected to become narrow, with the highest prices, excluding extrusion grades, falling below 1,100 €. At some producers, HDPE supply will be short from the beginning of the month. Thus, we do not expect significant oversupply despite weak demand at the beginning of the month. At the MOL Group, supply is expected to shrink in parallel with downtime from the end of August. Thus, the expected price range will be 1,020 - 1,100 EUR/t in August.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 1,030-1,100 €/t. Prices for August are expected to be in a range of 1,020-1,070 €/t.

Typical HDPE IM prices ranged from 1,020 - 1,100 €/t in Central Europe. In August we expect typical prices in a range of 1,020- 1,080 €/t.

HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 1,020-1,120 €/t in Central-Europe. August prices will be in a range of 1,010-1,100 € / t.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,225-1,300 €/t last week. We expect unchanged prices and good demand in August. The majority of large customers have already placed their August orders.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 980-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The leading producer will make a small price cut of € 20-30 for both blown and cast film in August. Thus, the expected August price range will be between 970-1,030 € / t.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,250 €/t last week. Supply is good, demand is low. We expect unchanged prices and good availability throughout the month of August. The typical price range will be between 1,120-1,250 €/t in August.

PPH prices generally haven't moved in the past week. Demand was low as well. Buyers were expecting August prices. Polymer producers followed propylene prices with substantially unchanged prices. Only in one or two cases did we see price reductions, but here the Central European producers tried to adjust its prices to those of its competitors. The market is basically preparing for roll-over. This may be influenced by the expected inflow of more goods from Russia. This may have a price-reducing effect.

The typical price of PPH Raffia in Poland was 980-1,100 €/t, while in other countries of Central Europe they were in a range of 1,020-1,130 €/t last week. Demand is low, the market keeps waiting. We do not expect further price reductions, but the top of the price band may fall slightly, so we expect prices in Central Europe as a whole in a range of 1,000-1,120 EUR/t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,010-1,130 €/t in Poland.  In other Central European countries the typical price was 1,040-1,150 €/t, prices did not change. The prices of high flow index products were in the price range of 1,060-1,180 €/t. We expect unchanged prices in August.

Typical prices for PPC were in a range of  1,140-1,270 EUR/t in Central Europe. Most producers prepare for roll over in August. Only in Slovakia was there a small adjustment of the price by the local producer between € 20-30. Supply and demand will be balanced.

PPR was in the range of 1,190-1,290 €/t last week, there was no change. Due to the summer, demand for packaging grades was very good, but also for pipe grades. Prices are not expected to change in August. Most producers prepare for roll-over-

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

SM prices rose slightly as expected. This will affect the price of European products. However, the market is expected to be heavily influenced by the expected arrival of cheaper PS shipments in Europe in the second half of August. Thus, we expect the price ranges to widen for each grade tested.

EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,220 €/t last week. We expect August prices to be announced next week. Producers are expected to increase their prices by 30-50 Euros. As of the second half of the month demand is expected to get more dynamic. Thanks to the upcoming insulation season.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,090-1,200 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a price range of 1,145-1,250 €/t . They did not change compared to last week. European producers have not yet announced prices. They will be published at the beginning of the week ahead. They are likely to formally raise prices following the SM price. However, due to weak demand, this is not expected to pass. We expect an increase of around 10 €/t for European-produced materials while import prices remain unchanged.

ABS prices were in a price range of 1,400-1,550 € last week.  Demand is low. However, European producers and major distributors are increasing their prices by 30-40 Euro.