Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 73.45 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1584, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 643.83 USD/t, stagnating prices,
• Olefin monomer roll-over:
• Ethylene (C2): roll-over, 1,135 €/t,
• Propylene: (C3): +8 €/t; 1,040 €/t 
• SM price increase: +20 €/t; 1,315 €/t
• weak regional currencies,
• summerlike demand

Monomer prices are already decided, polymer prices did not drop. Most producers have published prices last week. In case of polyethylene grades, because of the short HDPE/MDPE supply producers reacted with a price increase by up to 20 Euro. In case of LDPE, due to the lacking demand, the situation is still critical. Here there were roll-over and minor price cuts. Probably in the first half of August prices will erode further. The PP market is still a question mark.  Particularly the demand for PPC is low.  Producers came up with a price increase by up to 20 Euro.  We do not expect the demand to grow significantly in the first half of the month,

Half of the summer holidays is already gone, the market will come back to full operation after August 20 only. Then we will expectedly be able to see how strong a fall season we can expect. According to the expectations of converters the fall season will be good. If this is compared with the shutdowns expected by September-October, then we shall prepare for more intensively increasing prices and short supply in case of all polyolefin grades, with the exception of LDPE.

The price increase of SM in August forecasts the fall season. Because of the price increase of SM from Asia, spot prices will increase as early as in August. Both for monomers and polymers. Though for the time being, because of the low demand, it is hard to implement even price increases following monomer prices. 

All in all, in the first half of August we anticipate roll-over in case of the polymer grades we examined. Polymer demand will be low during the first half of August, demand is expected to grow after August 13 but after August 20 at latest. Then also prices can start climbing in parallel with the purchases.

Polyolefin grades

On the LDPE market the demand was still extremely low last week.  Because of the price reduction expected by converters almost everybody kept waiting. Last week the prices offered were in a range of 1,060-1,120 € in the region.  Most LDPE producers, following monomer prices, offer roll-over to their buyers. Producers, who had higher prices in July, are forced to follow the markets and in this way there was a price reduction by even as much as 10-20 Euro.  CE prices are expected to be in a range of 1,080-1,150 € in the first half of August.

In spite of the HDPE supply getting shorter in August, CE producers did not increase prices.  However WE producers did. The fact that in the second half of July summarized demand was lagging behind the expectations contributed to the decision of the regional producers. Though the shortage of BM grades and MDPE grades is continuous. In case of IM grades there is supply and producers also have inventories.

The typical price range is 1,150-1,220 €. In Poland prices are by some 30-50 Euro lower, here the price range is 1,110-1,170 € depending on the grade and application area. In the southern region (SCE) prices vary significantly, for the time being demand is lowest and uncertainty is highest here.

The demand for HDPE (100) pipe is good for the middle of the summer, the typical price range of 1,420-1,550 €/t did not change, most deals are made in the price range of 1,400-1,500 €/t.  The first offers of the producers are expected in between roll-over and a price increase by 20 Euro.

LLDPE C4 prices did not change, they remained in a range of 1,080 – 1,190 € last week.   Demand is low, supply is not broad either. The Euro being stable at the present keeps prices stable as well. In the first half of August roll-over can be expected.

The price range of mLLDPE was   1,240-1,300 € last week.  The price of grades produced in Europe is 1,290-1,400 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Roll over can be expected in August in case of grades produced in Europe, while the price of imported grades highly depends on the USD/Euro conversion rate. In this way, in case of the further weakening of the Euro, it is also possible that the bottom line of the price range will increase.

PPH demand was low last week, because of the summer holidays.  The typical price range is 1,170-1,260 € depending on the grade and application area. For the time being CE producers prepare for roll-over. But the biggest Western producers propose a price increase by 10-20 €.  Assumedly in case of raffia this will partially be implemented, as supply is short, but this is not probable in case of IM.  There are producers implementing minor price reductions in August, to adjust their high prices to the market realities.

PPC demand is still uncertain. In Central-Europe last week products were traded in a range of 1,250-1,310 €/t.  As a result of the price increase efforts of polymer producers this range will probably move into the band of 1,270-1,320 €. But the whole price range is broader, the highest value reaches 1,400 Euro.  High prices strongly limit PPC demand, in this way we expect uncertain, low demand in August.

The typical PPR price range is 1,280-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Typically there was roll over or minor price increase following monomer prices.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand is Janus-faced.  The typical offer price range in Central Europe is 1,500-1,570 €/t.  This is weak in the southern region and in Hungary. In the Czech Republic, in Slovakia and Poland demand is coming alive.   The expectations of the market players vary also accordingly.  While in Hungary converters rather hope to increase prices by 0-15 Euro, in the Czech Republic and Poland a price increase by 20-30 Euro is probable.  Because of the main fall season being at hand, all over Central-Europe after August 13, but after August 20 at latest a significant increase of the demand can be expected. In consideration of the expected changes on the SM market, a major price increase in the second half of August cannot be excluded either.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was still weak last week.   The average price of GPPS produced in Europe is in a range of 1,380- 1,490 €.  A minor price increase not exceeding 20 Euro is probable. The maintenance season might lead to reduced supply and balance. HIPS prices are in a range of 1,440-1,550 €, they did not change compared to last week. In the second half of August we expect the demand to grow.