Weekly commodity price report

The last week's question for converters was to buy now in July at surely low prices or do they still have time to buy in August? In early July, most converters, after a steep fall in prices, thought that prices would fall further in August. That is why it is worth to wait and process expensive inventories. Then buy in August at possibly lower prices than in July. This firm belief now turned into uncertainty. Polymer producers have been trying to keep their prices steady in recent weeks. There is no significant stock pressure, with a few exceptions. Converters planning on the long-term sought to buy in July, so that, for example, demand in the pipe market was picking up in the second half of July. Most converters think the price level is favorable now, but they would rather buy in the second half of August. During the weeks ahead, summer vacations follow until the middle of August. However, the more capital-intensive companies sought to buy in July. The big issue for next week is the price of olefin monomers. One expectation in common is that most polymer producers believe that further there will be no more monomer price reductions. The most likely scenario is roll-over + 10-25 €/t. In the case of ethylene, the unchanged price is most likely, while in the case of propylene, a slight price increase is possible. The price increase is supported by two factors, one being the $ 50 rise in the NAPHTHA price compared to June average prices. On the other hand, the necessary correction following the steep fall in prices. The question is, how do polymer producers react? It is the intention of the Central European polymer producers to maintain the price level in August and, if possible, to raise it slightly. It is likely that in case of lack of demand they will wait until the second half of August. The region's market is highly exposed to Western European imports. Thus, the decision is only partially made by local producers. As we are in the middle of the holiday season, it is very likely that there will not be enough traders at work to execute a possible price increase, so a monomer-tracking polymer price change will be the likely scenario. Which, in the event of a price increase, will not completely pass. The availability of polymers will be good in the first half of August, but after the 15th, we expect strong demand and declining availability.

Also in the case of the SM, the August price expectations have increased as well. In addition to rollover, even a small increase in prices is a plausible scenario. Market players anticipate a polymer price change by 0-50 €/t.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  970-1,050 €/t last week.  They did not change compared to last week. Last week, the Romanian producer also caught up to and adjusted itself to the Serbian producer prices. However, the 990 €/t FCA factory price seems to be the lowest of this summer. Polymer manufacturers are confident there is no further down here. However, they are not yet ready for a significant price increase in August. Supply is good and broad. Nor will there any ethylene monomer price rise.  There are many offers on the market. We expect unchanged prices in August.

HDPE prices have also stabilized. Typical prices remained in a range of 1,030-1,120 €/t.  The demand is in line with the season.  We expect unchanged prices in August, good availability in the first half of the month. Demand will pick up in the second half of August. Due to the imminent shutdown of MOL Petrochemical, temporary shortages are expected mainly in medium density grades in the second half of August.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 1,030-1,100 €/t. Demand is weak seasonally. Supply is good.

Typical HDPE IM prices ranged from 1,020 -  1,100 €/t in Central Europe. Supply is good, demand is in line with the season.  We expect unchanged prices in August.

HDPE Film grade prices have remained unchanged, in a range of 1,020-1,120 €/t in Central-Europe. Demand is low. In the second half of August we expect the demand to grow.  We expect unchanged prices in August.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,225-1,300 €/t last week.  Demand is good. A significant number of converters tried to pre-purchase and replenish their stocks at summer prices. We expect a good supply and unchanged prices in August. We expect unchanged prices in August.

The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 980-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Demand is good, due to the EUR getting weaker, a minor price increase by about 20 Euro is possible in August.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,120-1,250 €/t last week. Supply is good. Demand is summerlike, weak. Poor demand is likely to persist in the first two weeks of August due to vacations. We expect unchanged prices and good availability throughout the month of August.

PPH prices generally haven't moved in the past week. They are still the cheapest in Poland.  They are in a range of 1,010-1,100 €/t. In other Central European countries, typical prices in a range of 1,020-1,150 €/t were measured. Here we can see that the cheapest prices have started to adjust to Polish prices. As a result, a wide price range has developed. Low prices have led to a slight increase in demand. Moreover, some products have limited availability. Although a small price increase is possible for propylene monomer, it may not pass through for PPH. Especially since more import is expected from Russia as early as in August. This in turn can keep prices down and prevent price rises.

The typical price of PPH Raffia in Poland was 1,010-1,100 €/t, while in other countries of Central Europe they were in a range of 1,020-1,130 €/t last week. The bottom of the price band has fallen. As a result, demand also increased.  Producers are likely to change prices following monomer prices. But for the market as a whole, rollover is the most likely scenario.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,030-1,130 €/t in Poland.  In the rest of Central Europe, typical prices were in a range of 1,050-1,150 EUR/t, prices fell slightly, and the price band widened. The prices of high flow index products were in the price range of 1,060-1,180 €/t. The price range came to be slightly wider downwards. In other Central European countries the typical price was 1,080-1,230 €/t. Demand has improved slightly compared to the season.

Typical prices for PPC were in a range of 1,150-1,270 EUR/t in Central Europe. The price range has widened, with the lowest prices around 1,150 €. For some items even below. We expect a rollover compared to the prices in early July.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,190-1,290 €/t last week. Demand and supply are still good. Converters feel we're at the bottom of this year's prices. A price change following monomer prices is to be expected in August.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Grade name	Typical polymer price ranges in the fourth week of July 2019, Central Europe (€/ton)
HDPE BM	1020-1100
HDPE Film	1020-1120
HDPE IM	1020-1090
HDPE Pipe (100)	1225-1300
LDPE Film	970-1070
LDPE GP	990-1070
LLDPE C4	980-1050
mLLDPE C6	1120-1250
PPC	1170-1270
PPH IM	1030-1150
PPH IM HMFR	1090-1230
PPH Raffia	1000-1130
PPR	1190-1290
GPPS	1090-1200
HIPS	1145-1250
EPS	1150-1220
ABS	1400-1550

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,220 €/t last week. The demand is still low. Even though we are probably in a period of lowest prices. Theoretically, it would be worth shopping now. Although the prices are low, the converters' stores are full of feedstock and finished products. Everyone is waiting for the season to start. Which is expected to start in the second half of August. Next month's prices will probably be higher following the monomer price change (0-50). However, real price increases can only be imagined in parallel with the actual start of demand.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,090-1,200 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a price range of 1,145-1,250 €/t. They did not change compared to last week. Demand is low. Any change in SM prices will only increase European prices. Import shipments arriving in August continue to keep the bottom of the price ranges low.

ABS prices were in a price range of 1,400-1,550 € last week. The holiday season continues in the automotive industry. Also, buyers are cautious about orders. Price changes are expected in August following SM prices.