Weekly commodity price report

Low demand, melting prices                                       

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 72.58 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1642, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 632.78 USD/t, slightly increasing prices
• weak regional currencies,
• summerlike demand

The main holiday season continues. Both sellers and buyers are on holiday. There was a low number of transactions and silence on the market.

With the exception of HDPE the demand for all polymer grades is low. Sellers reacted to this with minor price reduction. The market seems to break apart again into Poland and into other CE countries. Polish prices are still the lowest ones, in case of polyolefin grades by 30-50 Euro lower than in the other countries of the region. In case of PS there is no significant difference.

Converters have a good level of orders, their inventories are satisfactory, they anticipate continuous supply, and they are not concerned because of the shutdowns expected during the next 3 months.

The following shutdowns can be expected:

• MOL Petrolkémiai Zrt. OLEFIN-2 plant in September, affecting also PP and HDPE production.
• Slovnaft PP3 October 15-30,
• Unipetrol PP capacity reduction in August,
• BOP HDPE shutdown as of the middle of September.

In the meantime in WE LyondellBasell is preparing for shutdowns in Wesseling as of the middle of September, in Ferrara as of early November. All this will significantly cut supply.

As far as expectations for August are concerned, roll-over has the highest probability in case of olefins and in case of SM a slight price increase is possible.

Polyolefin grades

In Poland LDPE prices started dropping, cheapest offers are below 1,100 €. The typical price range in Poland is 1,100-1,150 €/t. In the central region prices are melting, we have measured prices in a range of 1,120-1,180 €.   Supply is abundant. LDPE producers still have significant inventories.

HDPE supply is still short.  In case of BM grades in particular. This week goods were not available at HIP-Petrochemical either. But neither MOL nor WE producers could take new orders.

The typical price range is:  1,170-1,220 €/t. The price range is by some 30-50 Euro lower on the Polish market. Here the price range is 1,110-1,170 € depending on the grade and application area.

The demand for HDPE (100) pipe is good for the middle of the summer, the typical price range of 1,420-1,550 €/t did not change, most deals are made in the price range of 1,420-1,500 €/t. 

LLDPE C4 prices did not change, they are in a range of 1080 – 1,190 €.   Demand is low, supply is not broad either. The Euro being stable at the present keeps prices stable as well.

mLLDPE prices remained on the June price level, in the range of 1,290-1,400 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Import grades from outside of Europe are missing on the market.

PPH demand dropped last week.  The reasons can clearly be traced back to the holiday season. The typical price range is 1,180-1,260 € depending on the grade and application area. There is import on the market, the weakening of regional currencies came to a halt at the present and getting stronger, resp. which again keeps lowest prices at a level of about 1,180.

PPC demand is still low. The lowest prices are in a range of 1,250-1,310 €/ton, depending on the grade, producer and application area. In the other parts of Central-Europe we have measured a typical price range of 1,280-1,350 €.

The typical PPR price range is 1,280-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area. 

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand is still low.   It can be sold only by decreasing the prices by 20-30 € exceeding SM.  Demand is very low in Central Europe. The typical offer price range is 1,470-1,570 €.  Some converters have already started buying in advance, at probably the lowest price level of the year. In August we expect the demand to grow and minor price increase following monomer prices.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was still weak last week.   The average price of GPPS produced in Europe has dropped further, though the price range is 1,380- 1,490 €, most deals are made at about 1,400 €. HIPS prices are in a range of 1,440-1,550 EUR. Prices did not change compared to last week.