Weekly commodity price report

Commodity polymer prices and expectations were exposed to the following factors throughout last week:

• BRENT oil price 66.55 USD/barrel, on the rise again
• EUR/USD: 1.1368 continuously strengthening EURO,
• NAPHTHA: 472.70 USD/ton, rising prices in comparison to the previous week, but 85 USD lower than a month ago.
• Steeply declining CONTRACTED OLEFIN SM prices

               * Ethylene (C2) contract price - 75 EUR/ton (1,000 EUR/t),

               * Propylene (C3) contract price - 80 EUR/ton (910 EUR/t),

               * Styrene monomer (SM) contract price not known yet

• Processors reckon with a reduced price for all types of polymer,
• Price discounts brought forward,
• Weak demand,

Demand on the past week was weak. Processors were still waiting for the price reduction of July. A part of the polymer manufacturers brought July price reductions forward both officially and non-officially, reducing their prices by 30-40 € for both PP and PE. Yet, demand has not taken off. Certain manufacturers tried to make a discount of 60-70 Euros, mainly for PPC and PPR, but it did not bring about any more sales. It seems processors speculated well when they waited and tried to use up their ‘expensive’ raw materials stocks. They surely will be able to buy a lot cheaper in July because of the plummeting olefin monomer prices.

The markets were taken aback by the substantial increase in polyolefin monomer quotations. In mid-June a more significant monomer price drop could be conceived, thanks to the falling NAPHTHA prices. However, oil and NAPHTHA quotations started to rise again in the last third of June. This is how expectations shifted towards lesser changes. The 75 and 80 EUR per ton drop in the price of ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3), respectively, exceeded the expectations. Yet, it was not entirely a surprise, since an even more dramatic fall of monomer quotations took place on the Asian market. Up to this date, Europe had its own system in monomer pricing arrangements, but this is more and more the past. World market impacts have a carry-over effect increasing monomer price volatility more and more. It may also imply, however, sudden movements in the quotation levels upwards just as well, beside downward jumps.

Now, the question is, to which extent polymer manufacturers pass on the price drops in monomers? Most probably not entirely, they are thought to make an attempt to retain some 20-30 € of the monomer price reduction, thinking ahead of more difficult times when the prices will have to be increased in a larger extent. There are psychological barriers which they do not necessarily intend to cross in a single step: such limits include 1,000 EUR/t, 1,100 EUR/t, and 1,200 EUR/t in the case of PE, PPH, PPC/PPR, respectively. A large price drop is attractive for processors, since it is quite probable, that it will not continue at this rate and a lesser correction can be assumed for the month of August. This is how demand will most probably be excessive for the prices lower by 50 to 70 Euros. Which is substantiated by the fact that for instance supply of LPDE produced in Central Europe is expected to be lower during the upcoming two Summer months as a consequence of the maintenance works at the plant of Slovnaft. It is however important to note just as well that the inventories of starting materials on stock in the processor plants have been depleted significantly in June, therefore a kind of coercion also exists to buy. The quotation for SM will only be communicated on Monday. However, most market players expect roll-over +/- 20 EUR/ton change in the price.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE QUOTATIONS VARIED IN THE 1,050 - 1,120 €/T range during the past week. Supply is strong, demand is week. Customers expect a reduction in the price. The first quotations are expected to be in the 1,000 -1,070 €/T range during the upcoming week. Demand will decide, if there is any additional – lesser – price reduction needed or the same price level will stay over the month of July.

HDPE prices remained stable during last week. Typical prices varied between 1,070 and 1,220 €/t. A more significant reduction is expected in the case of the more expensive substances. The manufacturers who were stuck with the higher price level in June, are now given the chance to get closer to the market prices with their own prices. No possibility exists, however, for import coming from third countries outside of Europe. Therefore, prices in the upcoming week are expected to be in the 1,030-1,160 EUR/t range.

THE HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe varied in the 1,070-1,220 €/T range. Demand is weak. July prices will between 1 050 and 1 150 EUR/t in the first week of July.

The HDPE IM prices were in the 1,060-1,210 €/T range in Central Europe. Demand was very weak. Mainly cheaper substances could be sold off. July prices are expected between 1 040 to 1 130 EUR/ton.

The price for HDPE FILM TYPES was between 1,100 AND 1,240 €/T in Central Europe. Demand is weak. July prices are expected between 1 050 to 1 160 EUR/ton.

Typical HDPE (100) prices varied between 1,260 AND 1,360 €/T in the past week, declining compared to the previous week. The impact of import products is clearly felt in this. A part of European producers were also compelled to follow the lower prices, mainly in Romania and the southern region.

Typical LLDPE C4 prices were in the range of 1,050-1,100 €/T last week, pending on the type or area of use. Demand is weak. A stronger euro may result in a slight drop of prices, but supply is not steady, it is rather narrow.  This is how the prices for the first week of July are expected in the range of 1,020-1,080 EUR/t.

MLLDPE (C6) prices were in the 1,130-1,300 €/T range last week. Supply is satisfactory in terms of European substances. In July are expected in the range of 1,100-1,250 EUR/T.

PPH prices started to go down in the last week. A few manufacturers brought the reduction of prices expected by them forward. They reduced their selling prices by 30-40 Euros. This is why PPH quotations moved in the 1,130-1,200 EUR/T range last week. The next week will represent a serious challenge to polymer manufacturers. Should they let their prices drop below 1,100 €? Typical prices in the first week of July will be between 1,100 and 1,190 €/t. For a few import substances an end user price of 1,080 TO 1,100 €/T is also possible. The intensity of the demand in the month of July will decide whether or not additional price reduction will be needed.

Typical PPH RAFFIA prices were within the 1,130-1,200 €/T range last week. Demand is weak volt. Typical prices for July are expected to be in the 1,100-1,140 €/T range.

Special products of PPH IM with medium level of index of liquid limit could be purchased at a price between 1,140 AND 1,240 €/T. Demand is weak. Prices of products with high level of index of liquid limit were situated in the 1,160-1,260 €/t price level. Demand was weak, Customers waited for a better opportunity. Prices for products with medium level of index of liquid limit will be in the 1,100-1,180 €/ton range, while the prices of products with high level of index of liquid limit can be expected in the 1,140-1,240 €/t range.

Typical prices for PPC were in the 1,230-1,340 €/T range in Central Europe last week. A minor drop in prices could be observed. Selling was difficult even with larger discounts. Customers clearly waited for a price reduction. The lowest price level is most probably getting below the 1,200 Euros limit in July. Hence, July prices are expected in the 1,180-1,300 €/t range.

Prices for PPR were in the 1,260-1,350 €/T range last week. They dropped a little bit, thanks to the selling pressure building up. July prices are expected between 1,220 AND 1,330 €/T.

The table below shows the typical prices of the past week (full truck load being 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The PS market was characterised by waiting for the best opportunity and a weak demand on the past week. Processors wait for the July quotations. According to their expectations, both SM and PS prices might be reduced further to a lesser extent.

EPS prices varied in the 1,240-1,280 €/T range last week. Demand is weak, mainly for insulating materials. At the time being, the construction industry does not call off a sufficient amount of goods with reference to the lack of capacities. A lesser price drop is probable in July: prices in the range of 1,220 to 1,280 €/t are expected.

Typical GPPS and HIPS prices were in the 1,090-1,250 €/T, and 1,145-1,300 €/T range, respectively. Imported substances tend to pull both the overall price levels and expectations downward. No changes in the import prices are expected, but the price of the European materials is about to follow suit with that of the monomers.

ABS prices varied in the 1,430-1,650 € range in the past week. No change occurred. Customers expect a drop in prices for the month of July.