Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 70.75 USD/barrel, continuously increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.116, strong Euro
• NAPHTHA: 588.70 USD/t, increasing prices
• Slightly rising contract olefin SM prices
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +30€/t (1,075 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price +20 €/t  (990 EUR/t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +32.5 € / t (1,185 EUR / t)
• Demand in line with the season, yet precautious polyolefin demand.
• Still a tight supply of PE and PP
• Strong, but weaker than expected PS demand

Last week was short in most Central European countries because of the national holiday on May 1 and in Poland on May 3rd. That is why demand was also very weak. There was just a low number of transactions last week.

The price increase of ethylene (C2) was as expected, while the price increase of propylene (C3) was slightly, and that of SM significantly lower than the expectations.

Polymer prices follow the price changes of monomers, according to the previous producer price announcements. In the case of LDPE, they will also exceed it.

In May we expect a seasonal demand for polyolefin.

The supply of LDPE, LLDPE C4, PPH Raffia polymers remains tight.  And so far, there seems to be no significant supply expansion for European producers in May. However, the still strong Euro and rising polymer prices have an incentive effect on imports. However, it will not have a price increase mitigating effect in May.

Despite the tight supply, the price increase of SM did not reach the expected level. This may be due to the fact that the demand for polystyrene is good, but this is not as expected. Also, the expected restart of the SM plant of Shell (Morrdeijk) at the end of May will increase supply. This is likely to cause a correction (minor price reduction) in June. Manufacturers may have made this correction as early as in May with a slight increase in SM prices.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  1,090-1,140 €/t last week.  Due to the short working week and the shortage of goods, there were few transactions.  According to preliminary information, in May the price increase will be 30-40 €. The typical price range is expected to be  1,100-1,180 €/t.

HDPE prices did not change. The typical HDPE prices in Poland were in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/t. In the other parts of Central-Europe the typical price range was 1,150-1,230 €/t. In May, we expect improved supply and monomer-driven price increases. The HDPE prices in May will be in a range of  1,160-1,260 € / t. In the southern region the price range will be 1,160 to 1,200 € / t, while prices in Poland and the central region are expected to be in a range of 1,190 to 1,260 € / t for all HDPE grades

HDPE BM prices in Central Europe were in the range of 1,140 to 1,210 € / t. We expect monomer driven prices. May prices in Central Europe will be 1,170-1,250 € / t.

HDPE IM prices were in a range of 1,140-1,200 €/t.   We expect expanding supply and monomer driven price increase. May prices in Central Europe will be in a range of 1,170-1,240 € / t.

HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 1,170-1,240 €/t in Central-Europe. Supply is still short. We are anticipating monomer driven price increase and expanding supply (HDPE FILM). May prices in Central Europe will be in a range of 1,190-1,270 € / t.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,300-1,390 €/t last week, they did not change. May prices follow monomer according to preliminary announcements. Prices will be in the price range of € 1,330 to € 1,430 / t.

LLDPE C4 supply is still short, typical prices were in a range of 1,100-1,160 €/t last week.  It is still rising steadily.

  mLLDPE (C6) prices varied in a range of 1,170-1,300 €/t, A price increase by 20 EUR following monomer prices is expected in May. The typical price range will be 1,200-1,310 €/t.

Typical PPH prices were in a range of 1,170-1,280 €/t last week.  Behind the 1,200 € price are the PP producers in the southern countries of Central Europe. However, other European manufacturers offer their products at prices above € 1,200. The monomer price increase has become smaller than expected, so a 25-30 Euro price increase is likely.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,170-1,240 €/t last week.  Supply is short.  We do not expect supply to expand in May. Short supply will prevail. An average price increase by 25-35 € is probable in May.  Prices will be in a range of 1,180-1,260 €/t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,180-1,260 €/t last week.  Prices for high-flow index products were in the price range of 1,200-1,290 €. Supply is between tight and balanced. Polymer producers are interested in maintaining a high price level. There is a shortage in the price range of less than € 1,200. A price increase by 25-40 € exceeding monomer prices is to be expected.

Typical PPC prices were in a range of 1,290-1,350 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  The supply tighter than usual. In particular, there is a lack of cheaper items from outside of Europe on the market. European producers are preparing for a price increase by 25-35 € following monomer prices.  The prices are expected to be between 1,300 and 1,370 € / t.

The PPR price range was 1,300-1,400 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  A price increase by 25-35 EUR can be expected in May. Prices will be in a range of 1,310-1,410 €/t.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS prices were in a range of 1,300-1,400 €/t last week, they did not change.  There are still stocks at the raw material manufacturers. This shows weaker than expected demand.   In May, a price increase of around € 30 is likely. The likely price range will be 1,380-1,450 € / t.

Typical GPPS prices were in a price range of 1,250-1,430 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a price range of 1,320-1,510 €/t last week. The supply is good: there is PS imported from Russia and from outside of Europe on the market. However, demand does not meet expectations. In case of European products, we expect a price increase of EUR 30, equivalent to the price increase for SM.

ABS prices were in the price range of 1,580-1,720 € over the past week, rising steadily. Demand is good, supply is slightly tight. For European-made ABS, a price increase of 30 Euro is likely.