Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

                * BRENT oil price 74.04 USD/barrel, increasing prices,

                * EUR/USD: 1.2103, EURO getting weaker

                * NAPHTHA: 606.43 USD/t, increasing prices

                * Contracted monomer prices in May

                * Propylene (C3) +25 €, 952 €/t,

                * Ethylene (preliminary) (C2) +20, 1.087 €/t,

                * Styrene monomer: price agreement expected on May 2,

                * Low demand

The last week of April was silent, and the first week of May seems to be silent as well. The first of May is a holiday almost in all countries of the region and this is coupled also with at least one more day off. In Poland the first and also the third of May are holiday, and most take the whole week off. Many plants are also down. In this way the players of the polymer market have time to set their prices for May. At the time when our report was written only the contractual propylene price was known, which increased by 25 € compared to the previous month.  The first proposal of ethylene price is +20 €, but this price can be almost regarded as final price.  Monomer price increase is on one hand supported by the increase of oil and naphtha prices, and the weakening of Euro compared to the USD. But the not too high demand and PE oversupply counteract the price increase.  Expectedly polymer producers do not wish to suffer the loss of their margins, therefore it can be taken almost for granted that the monomer price increase will be transferred to buyers. In case of PP this will probably be fully implemented, but in case of LDPE and LLDPE, because of oversupply and partially due to the low demand transferring the price increase to buyers will be limited. At any rate the first silent week of May seems to be suitable to test the willingness of buyers to accept price increase. We expect final prices as late as in the second week of May.

PS market is characterized by low supply. SM price reduction is still probable, but the extent of the price drop can be anticipated to be less than expected last week (25-50 €/t).  The reason is first of all the continuous increase of the crude oil price and also the expected increase of benzene price. According to some sources even a minor SM price increase cannot be excluded. At any rate it is sure that the end of April and even early May mean the lowest prices in the spring season.

In case the increase of crude oil prices continues also SM prices will be dragged along.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices did not change last week.  The typical price range is

1,100-1,160 €. As usual, Polish prices start from 1,100 €, while in the other parts of Central-Europe the lowest price is 1,120. Polymer producers and traders have a high inventory level, of the simpler 0.3 LDPE in particular.  Plastic converters choosing simpler film products complain about low demand. But producers producing multilayer packaging materials representing a higher technical level reported about a higher level of orders and capacity utilization. As the prices are extremely close to monomer prices, price increase is indispensable. We expect a price increase by 20 Euro.

HDPE made a turn.  At least in the regions of Central-Europe outside of Poland. Due to the shutdown of HIP-Petrohemija, the disrupted supply by Unipetrol and the short MDPE supply the price level was stable and higher than 1,100 € last week. In case of BM grades we could see sales in a price range of 1,140-1,160 € in the southern region.  The prices measured below 1,100 € in Poland cover almost without exception materials imported from outside of Europe and from the Ukraine.  The price of products of local producers starts from 1,100 €. We anticipate a price increase following monomer prices (by about 20 €) with the exception of MDPE, in this case even a price increase following monomer prices plus 10-15 € is possible.

HDPE PIPE (100) demand is low.  Maybe this is the reason why we could see prices below the official range of 1,350-1,460 € last week.  In the southern region the typical price range was 1,290-1,320 €, with low turnover.  In May we expect improving demand and price increase following monomer prices.

The drop of LLDPE C4 price came maybe to a halt. In Poland the typical price range is 1,050-1,100 €, but we have received news also about lower prices. Supply is broad, but demand is just on the average level.

The price range in the other countries of the region is 1,080-1,150 €, in spite of the expected monomer price increase we anticipate roll-over.

MLLDPE prices did not change compared to last week. The typical price range is 1,220-1,260 €.  We expect a price increase following monomer prices.

There was a minor price increase on the PPH market last week.  The Serbian producer increased its prices to a lower extent, by 10 Euros.

All in all a good demand has been reported. The price of PPH Raffia grades in Poland is in a range of 1,120-1,170 €, and 1,140-1,180 € in the other countries of the region.  The price range of PPH IM grades is 1,140-1,230 €, depending on the grade, producer, application area and melt index.  The supply is slightly short, therefore the price increase following monomer prices (+25 EUR) will probably be accepted on the market.

PPC prices remained in a range of 1,230-1,270 last week.   Material from

Iran is available in Poland in a price range of 1,190-1,220 €/ton.

Demand was low last week.  Larger producers try to boost demand by extraordinary discounts (10-20 €).  The pre-purchase expected did not happen. Polymer producers will probably increase prices following monomer prices, by 25 €.

On the PPR MARKET the typical price range is 1,260-1,350 €.  Demand is balanced, not too high, compared to the season. Certain sheet

(packaging) grades are in short supply on the spot markets in the central and southern region. However the supply to contracted customers is continuous.

We expect a price increase following monomer prices.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand in April was low.  This did not change last week either.

Converters expect price reduction or at least no price change. In May demand is expected to grow, and in this way, even in case of a potential SM price reduction rather roll-over will be typical. Because of the increasing demand it can come to a shortage on the market. Therefore some have already anticipated this and have purchased in advance in the last week of April. In May we anticipate prices in a range of 1,650 –

1,730 €.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS is not too high.  Supply is good, GPPS and HIPS from Iran are available again and this can keep prices permanently down. In case an SM price drop by 15-40 € occurs, then the gap between the prices of products from Europe and imported from outside of Europe will disappear completely.  Market players expect roll-over in May.