Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 67.86 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.299, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 534.79 USD/t, increasing prices
• Slightly increasing SPOT olefin monomer and steeply increasing SPOTSM prices

• Ethylene (C2) spot price (FD NWE): +40 EUR/t compared to the status at the beginning of the month (870 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) spot price (FD NWE): +0 EUR/t compared to early the month (890 EUR/t), Styrene monomer (SM) spot price (FOB Rotterdam): + 145 USD/t compared to early the month (1,145 USD/t),

• Demand in line with the season,
• Short PE and PP supply

In the third week of March PE, PP and PS supply came to be shorter. But this does not cause supply problems on the market. As due to the “cheap” January and February the inventories of converters started from a high level in March. Demand is good. According to the opinion of sellers they could have sold more both of PP and PE and PS if they had had more of this.  This is particularly true for Central-European areas outside of Poland, and in the lower third of the price ranges. Demand for higher prices polymer grades is still limited. This impacts distributors first of all. The situation of distributors is further aggravated by the fact that the demand is split up between an increasing number of players. In this way old players perceive that demand is dropping. In the region we cannot talk about production decrease, though prospects are, first of all in Western Europe, cloudy, but the facts show, for the time being, a good season in Central Europe.

The seasonal effect is visible on the price expectations as well. The increase of the NAPHTHA price in January-March by almost 100 USD (16%) is more or less pushing monomer prices up.  Up to now this is rather not a success story. The further increase of monomer prices will continue in April as well. Though spot prices during the month have hardly changed. Ethylene spot monomer price increased by 40 Euro compared to the beginning of the month. This is roughly in line with the NAPHTHA price change. Ethylene demand in Europe also seems to be good, in this way it is probable that ethylene monomer (C2) prices will increase by 30-40 € in April.   Propylene (C3) seems to be more problematic.  Unchanged spot monomer price indicates low demand. Though there will be a constraint to increase monomer prices, but demand is expected to mitigate this. In this way only a propylene monomer price increase by 20-30 € seems to be probable.  The steep increase of the spot SM price by 145 USD forecasts an SM price increase by even three digits in April. But SM is also able to make a surprise. Contractual monomer price agreements are expected as late as next week only, probably all are aware of the probability of price increase. Yet the “slight” price increase does not motivate polyolefin buyers to buy in advance. Polystyrene buyers are hindered in buying in advance by the shortage of goods.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of  1,010-1,100 €/t last week.  The top value of the price range increased.  There are not many goods in the price range of 1,010-1,040 €/t.  Buying was mostly possible in the range of 1,050-1,100 €.  But in this price range demand and interest are low. We expect a price increase by 30-40 € by April.

In Poland HDPE prices are still stagnating. Blow and film grades are still available at prices below 1,100 €.  Here the typical HDPE prices in Poland were in a range of 1,085-1,170 €/t. In the other parts of Central-Europe prices remained typically higher than 1,100 €/t. 1,120-1,200 €/t.

HDPE BM prices are in a range of  1,090-1,170 €/t in Poland, while in a range of 1,130-1,190 €/t in other parts of Central-Europe.  Supply is balanced for the time being.  In April a price increase following monomer prices is probable.

The tendency of HDPE IM prices was similar in Poland and also in the other countries of Central-Europe.  Last week we have measured prices in a range of  1,110-1,170 €/t last week.  Supply is still short. In April the price of HDPE IM produced in Europe is expected to increase by 30-40 €/t. 

In case of HDPE FILM grades, in Poland, prices were in a range of 1,080-1,160 €/t last week. In the other countries of Central-Europe the price range is 1,140-1,200 €/t.  Here the upward movement seems to be clear, which is due to the short supply. In April, compared to the prices in March, we expect a price increase by 30-40 €/t.

Typical prices of HDPE (100) grades were in a range of 1,270-1,360 €/t they did not change compared to the previous week.  There is a slight oversupply on the market. 

LLDPE C4 supply increased, but it is not yet stable.  The typical price range is 1,000-1,070 €/t.  There is shortage of goods in the range of 1,000-1,030 €/t.  Supply is satisfactory in the price range of  1,040-1,070 €/t.  In April probably there will be sufficient quantities again and in this way the temporary short supply will disappear. Because of the weakening of the USD a price increase by 10-20 € is probable. 

 mLLDPE (C6) prices still vary in a broad range of 1,140-1,280 €/t, depending on the grade and producer.  Supply is balanced and demand is good.

PPH demand is high.  Supply is still short. The typical price range is 1,120-1,260 €/t. 

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  1,120-1,220 €/t in Central Europe last week. Supply is in general short. The fact that the upper value of the price range increased further also confirms this.  In April we expect a polymer price increase exceeding monomer price increase by an average 30 €.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/tlast week.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,170-1,260 €/t last week.  There is a particularly high demand for grades with high melt index.  Supply is short, major increase is expected as of May only.  We expect an increase by 25-40 € in April.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,200-1,310 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  Demand is good and supply is short.  We expect an increase by 25-40 € in April. 

The PPR price range was 1,280-1,370 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area. Supply of European grades is short.  Demand is good and is growing in line with the season. We expect an increase by 20-30 € in April.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand is good.  Central European producers have closed their „order books” as early as at the beginning of last week.  The typical price range where deals were made, was 1,250-1,300 €/t.  It is a question mark for the market, how much the market can accept a major monomer price increase by 60-80 €-s (maybe even by three digits), in particular if we consider that the real season will start in May only.

Typical GPPS prices are in a price range of 1,240-1,310 €/t. while HIPS prices are in a price range of 1,260-1,400 €/t. The decrease of the lower value of the price range  is due to the goods from outside of Europe appearing in Poland.  The supply of European and within this Central European products is short, both in case of GPPS and HIPS. Most buyers are aware of the price increase probable in April.  Yet purchasing possibilities are limited.

ABS prices were in a range of 1,490 - 1,650 €/t last week.  The cheapest prices did not change, goods imported from the Far East (South-Korea) are typically on a price level of about 1,500 €.  European products are in a price range of  1,540-1,650 €.  Demand is good and supply is broad.  Weakening USD will curb the possible price increase in April.  This still keeps the price of goods imported from outside of Europe on a cheap level.