Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 66.30 USD/barrel, slightly dropping prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1235, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 526.85 USD/t, increasing prices
• Increasing contractual olefin and SM prices in March
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +30€/t (1,015 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price +25 €/t  (950 EUR/t),
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price +60 €/t (1,060 €/t)
• Dynamic demand,
• Short PE and PP supply

The fact of price increase is sure, yet the final price level is still uncertain in many cases. The reason for uncertainty is that converters are confronted now with the limited polyolefin supply. What seemed to be available in abundant quantities so far, e.g. LDPE, was hard to have last week. One of the reasons is the planned shutdown of HIP-Petrohemija and the related loss of production.  The other reason is that LDPE prices are already so low that it is no business for importers and traders to sell at this price. In this way LDPE supply came to be significantly lower by early March.  The HDPE situation is similar, cheapest import grades are available only at prices higher than  1,100 €/t.  PPH and PPR grades are absolutely missing on the PP market, first of all due to the low Russian import and the lower quantity of WE products.  The maintenance at HIPOL and Unipetrol planned for the middle of March further decreases PP supply. One of the biggest suppliers in CE, SABIC, cannot completely, in the usual way, cover customer needs.  The market will be confronted with the fact in March that the high number of offers of traders on the market does not necessarily correspond to high quantities of goods.  Polyolefin grades on the market will probably drop further during the weeks ahead. In this way it is possible that prices will increase further in the second week of March, first of all on the spot markets. They would reach the level when it will be a bargain again for importers to supply to CE.

In case of polystyrene grades polymer producers propose a price increase following/slightly exceeding monomers to their buyers. The acceptance of new prices will be subject to the supply. In case of EPS and ABS the market can accept a price change not reaching the monomer price change.  In case of GPPS/HIPS the market accepts the price increase following monomer prices.

Polyolefin grades

The most important event in March is that LDPE prices below 1,000 €/t have disappeared. Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 1,000-1,070 €/t last week.  Because of the short supply getting continuously shorter prices are not expected to drop in March. The uncertainty of MOL-Slovnaft in confirming orders makes things more difficult. The season has started, demand is growing, and the available quantity of goods is diminishing.

Prices below 1,100 €/t disappeared from the HDPE supply.  Supply is getting shorter. In Central Europe HDPE prices were in a range of 1,100-1,200 €/t last week. The price below 1,100 is due to the fact that the HDPE producer of the southern region did not increase prices last week, but products are not available.  In case of HDPE BM prices were in a range of 1,120-1,190 €/t last week. This price range will probably stabilize.  But it is possible that spot prices in the second half of the month might be as high as 1,200 €/t.

In case of HDPE IM prices were in a range of 1,110-1,160 €/t last week. Supply is short here as well. Demand is getting higher continuously.

In case of HDPE FILM prices were in a range of 1,115-1,175 €/t last week. MDPE grades produced in CE are by 30-50 Euro more expensive. Demand is getting higher. Supply is short. In the realm of higher prices, at distributors, there are still quantities available.

HDPE (100) prices increased following monomer prices in March.  The typical price range was 1,270-1,360 €.  Demand is good, but pipe manufacturers have pre-purchased significant quantities in January-February.  In this way the price increase planned above the monomer price increase was in many cases not successful. 

LLDPE C4 supply became significantly shorter.  The fact that the bottom of the price range increased by 50 € is a clear evidence for this. The typical price range is 1,000-1,060 €/t.  For the time being we cannot see yet when supply can grow. In this way even a price increase during the month is possible.

The price of mLLDPE (C6) increased as well, producers increased prices to the level of monomer grades, by 30 €.  Prices were in a range of 1,140-1,270 €/t last week.   But with the price increase, the typical price range for March will be 1,160-1,270 €/t.

PPH demand increased further.  But supply is short. Prices increased slightly, following monomer prices, they were in a range of 1,140-1,260 €/t.  

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,140-1,210 €/t. Price increase generally followed monomer prices. For the time being, in particular in the southern region, supply is short.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,140-1,230 €/t.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,190-1,280 €/t last week.  We expect prices to become final during the week ahead,   subject to the short supply.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,220-1,310 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  European producers increased prices following monomer prices. However there are still cheap materials imported from outside of the EU on the market. This keeps the price range broad. In Poland buyers are hard to accept the price increase. Supply in March will be decisive as to the tendency of final prices. It is possible that prices will slightly increase in the second half of March.

The PPR price range was 1,280-1,370 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area. Typically there was a price increase following monomer prices. Supply is short, demand increased significantly.  The quantities close to the bottom of the price range were probably sold out as early as last week, in this way during the weeks ahead it will be possible to buy mostly at prices higher than 1,300 €.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS producers basically tried to increase prices following monomer prices.  But during the last months many converters stockpiled goods. In this way they were able to make use of their ability to crush prices. On the market there was a price increase by some 40-50 €/t.  Prices were in a range of 1,250-1,330 €/t last week.   Demand is good and supply is broad.

In case of GPPS/HIPS there was a price increase following monomer prices. Typical GPPS prices were a price range of 1,240-1,310 €/t.  HIPS prices were in a range of 1,310-1,400 €/t.  Demand is good and supply is almost limited to European grades.  In the second half of March the appearance of quantities imported from outside of Europe is also anticipated,    as prices start getting attractive again. 

In case of ABS prices it is absolutely true that prices are basically subject to supply.  Because of the significant import from outside of Europe prices cannot increase following SM prices. Though European producers declared a price increase by 60-70 €/t, but the general market price level increased by 35-50 € only.  Typical ABS prices were in a range of 1,530 - 1,610 €/t last week.  Supply is broad, in this way we do not expect further price increase in March.