Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices last week:

• BRENT oil price 45.27 USD / barrel, falling oil prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1306, turning trend, strengthening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 376.88 USD/t, rising prices again,
• March contract monomer prices:
  • Ethylene (C2) contract price -50 EUR/t (920 EUR / t),
  • Propylene (C3) contract price -20 EUR/t (825 EUR / t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price -126 EUR / t (941 EUR / t)
• All Central European polymer producers are producing.
• Expected outages:
  • Rompetrol: 2020. March 15 - May 5, 2020 (LDPE, PP)
  • Unipetrol: April 6 - May 18, 2020 (HDPE, PP, C2, C3)
• Limited imports from outside Europe for both PE, PP and PS.

Oil and NAPHTHA prices are falling steadily as a result of the Asian economic downturn due to the coronavirus. This in turn fundamentally influences the mood of converters. Everyone expects a polymer price drop.

Polymer producers reacted differently to the drop in the price of ethylene (C2) monomer by EUR 50. Central European producers have passed on to their customers price reductions lower than the ethylene price. The price of polyethylene has typically decreased by 10-30 EUR/t. Western European manufacturers have stepped up and reduced their polyethylene prices by € 30-50. As a result, their price level is close to that of local (CE) producers. In the supply of polyethylene there is a container shortage in Europe and North America due to the coronavirus. Thus, there is little PE coming from North America.

Polymer producers reacted differently to the fall in the price of propylene monomer (C3) -20 EUR/t. Central European producers have generally reduced their polymer prices by 0-30 EUR/t. However, some Western European manufacturers have been trying to raise prices. The extent of the price rise was as high as 50 EUR/t in case of some customers. The reason for the price increase is to restore the margin level lost between November 2019 and the end of January 2020. The price increase is supported by less import of PP into Europe, by European maintenance in preparation, and by the fact that Russia is expected send less PP in the next 2 months. As a result, in the case of PPH in particular, one has to prepare for a tight supply by the end of April. PPH prices may start rising in March.

The decline in styrene monomer (SM) - € 126/t surprised the market. The reason is the oversupply on the world market. Polystyrene manufacturers reacted to the SM price drop with a price reduction of 50-70 EUR/t. For the time being, buyers want more, so demand has been weak last week. However, due to the closing of the Iran-Turkey border, no goods are coming from Iran at all. There is also little Russian material on the market. Thus, customers can rely on European producers only.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of 880-960 €/t last week. The bottom of the price band fell by € 10 and the top dropped by € 30 compared to February. Average prices dropped by 20-30 €. Some Western European manufacturers have cut prices by € 50/t. Final prices will be set in the week ahead as buyers place their orders. Demand in March looks good. Due to the coronavirus, there is no decline in production.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 870 - 960 €/t in Central Europe last week. Price reductions were in the broad range of -20-50 €. Now more and more producers in Europe are approaching € 900. Demand is good, the season seems to have begun. Customers typically expected a maximum reduction of € 50. Typical HDPE prices were as follows:

• HDPE BM: 890-960 €/t,
• HDPE IM: 900-960 €/t,
• HDPE FILM: 870-940€/t,

Prices of European grades are slowly closing in with non-European import prices. A bimodal HDPE product from Unipetrol's new plant has been launched, but only IM is currently available.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,110-1,180 €/t last week. Demand in February was good, and March seems to be good as well. In the pipe segment, producers have made varying price reductions between € 10 and € 50. The final March prices will be out next week.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. Demand is uncertain as all other PE prices have fallen significantly. Logistics problems in world trade and the strengthening euro are likely to affect 

LLDPE C4 prices in the coming months. Thus, we expect a narrowing supply and stable, slightly rising prices.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,140 €/t last week. The price range has narrowed and average prices have fallen. Demand is moderate but there is significant oversupply.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. They did not change. Although some producers have reduced prices, this has not pushed the bottom of the price band down. Other Western European producers have made significant price increases, but this has not pushed the top value of the price range upwards. Due to expected shutdowns at Rompetrol, Unipetrol and SIBUR tobolski, we expect supply to decline in March and April. This may also lead to price increases.

The price of PPM IM non-special products with medium melt index was in a range of 900-1,030 €/t last week.The price of products with high melt flow index ranged from 970 to 1,080 €/t. Demand for both grades is good. Some producers made a roll-over, others reduced their prices by 10-20 €/t, but some made significant price increases. Demand is good and will probably remain good in March and April.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,040 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. The price range as a whole has virtually rolled over. Demand is not bad. There are few imported PPCs from Saudi Arabia and South Korea. They started their journey before the coronavirus outbreak, their prices are at the bottom of the price range. However, we expect less imports from outside Europe in the coming months. As a result, supply will be reduced.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,100-1,200 €/t last week. In terms of the price range as a whole, there has also been a rollover. PP producers have made 'mixed' decisions. There was also a price increase, a roll-over, a drop in prices. However, this can best be interpreted as a price movement within the band.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,030-1,100 €/t last week. The past week was characterized by a bargain for the price. Most deals were made in a band of 1.030-1.050. Those who were outside were forced to cut prices. The net-price for big buyers (after bonus, after discounting) can be as low as below € 1,000/t.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,030-1,135 €/t, while HIPSprices were in a range of 1,110-1,190 €/t . There was just a low number of transactions last week. Demand for HIPS was strong, while for some GPPS grades there was a shortage of feedstock. Customers are making their purchasing decisions dependent on their April expectations.

Typical natural ABS prices were in the price range of 1,400-1,550 €last week. The market is still characterized by oversupply. The SM price cut brought the higher-priced European prices down by € 100. Last week's demand was low and we expect a recovery in the second week of March.